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The following is a copy of the Council on Foreign Relations' "CFR Online Study Group" file searched for on on 9/4/02. The link itself is gone. The directory where this file resided was at but this no longer exists at the CFR website. A copy of the cache still resident on google is included below. The item of interest is bullet number three at the bottom, referenced in Amalgam Virgo Exercise & Co.--The Secret Terror Excercises. All links in the following connected inside They are indicated with blue text.



In the Fall of 1999 the Council established a new research project examining the linkages between the financial markets and broader economic, foreign policy and national security concerns. Our premise is that the most dangerous near-term threat to U.S. world leadership, and thus collaterally to U.S. security, would be a sharp decline in the U.S. securities markets. It would likely hobble the U.S. economy at a time when the strength of its economy is critical to the economic prosperity and financial health of other nations, their political stability, and ultimately international security.

Our purpose is to develop research findings and expert advice that policy makers can use to help prepare for an unexpected financial mishap, anticipate the wide variety of economic and political effects it might have, and perhaps take steps to mitigate at least some of the adverse consequences.

We want to emphasize that tracing through the far-reaching consequences of a financial market disturbance does not mean that we are predicting one. To the contrary, the probability of such a financial convulsion is still quite low. Yet, low-probability, but potentially high-cost events are often too easily dismissed by market participants and policy makers alike. Our objective is to encourage forward thinking and possible preventative actions.

To accomplish this objective, we have undertaken a three-part series of Council events, led by Roger Kubarych, the Council's Henry Kaufman Senior Fellow for International Economics and Finance:

  1. The September 29, 1999 Roundtable on Financial Vulnerabilities.

  2. The January 22, 2000 Policy Simulation in which a small group of experienced policy thinkers and former policy makers worked through the options and constraints facing the U.S. Government in the aftermath of a sudden and significant decline in the U.S. securities markets. View pictures of the Simulation.

  3. The upcoming July 12 and 13, 2000 Conference "The Next Financial Crisis: Warning Signs, Damage Control and Impact" will bring together serious professionals from the financial markets, business and the foreign policy and national security communities to explore how to do a better job of identifying and managing risks in the global system

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