Oil has always been top of Bush's foreign-policy agenda
By Ritt Goldstein
7 October 2002
Sydney Morning Herald
The White House decided that diplomacy was not an option in the
Middle East, writes Ritt Goldstein.
As the United States prepares for war with Iraq, a report
commissioned early in George Bush's presidency has surfaced,
showing that the US knew it was running out of oil and
foreshadowing the possible need for military intervention to
secure supplies.
The report forecasts an end to cheap and plentiful fuel, with the
energy industry facing "the beginning of capacity limitations".
Prepared by the influential Washington-based Council on Foreign
Relations and the James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy,
it urged the Bush Administration to admit "these agonising truths
to the American people".
Strategic Energy Policy Challenges for the 21st Century (HTML,
PDF, Word 95) [Report of an Independent Task Force Cosponsored by
the James A Baker III Institute for Public Policy at Rice
University and the Council on Foreign Relations], written early
last year, was a policy document used to shape the new
administration's energy policy.
It applauded the creation of Vice-President Dick Cheney's energy
task force to address the creation of specific energy plans, and
suggested it consider including representation from the Department
of Defence.
Saying "there is no alternative" and "there is no time to waste",
the document projects periods of exploding US energy prices,
economic recession and social unrest unless answers are found.
It suggests that a minimum three to five years is needed to find a
solution, and says a "reassessment of the role of energy in
American foreign policy" is called for, with access to oil
repeatedly cited as a "security imperative".
The involvement of the Council of Foreign Relations in the
report's preparation adds weight to its findings. The council
ranks as one of the most influential groups in US political
circles, with members including Mr Cheney and the former
secretaries of state Henry Kissinger and James Baker.
The report also explodes the myth that the US is insulated from
Middle East oil supply problems because it receives the bulk of
its oil from less volatile sources outside the Persian Gulf. It
says Middle East pricing and supply trends "will affect energy
costs around the globe regardless".
It details an alternative basis for the US "war on terrorism", as
well as the apparent basis for much of the Bush Administration's
present foreign policy, its so-called oil agenda.
The Administration has been actively pursuing oil issues with
Venezuela, Colombia, West Africa, the Caspian and Indonesia. And
amid the pressure of UN resolutions and Israeli-Palestinian
tension, the Secretary of State, Colin Powell, recently visited
West Africa.
Among the "immediate steps" it urged was an inquiry into whether
US policy could be changed to speed the availability of oil from
the Caspian Basin region, supporting longstanding accusations that
energy issues shadowed the US agenda in Afghanistan.
The French authors Jean-Charles Brisard and Guillaume Dasquie have
argued that US oil interests had persuaded the Bush Administration
to block terrorism investigations and negotiate with the Taliban,
a report by the Inter Press Service (IPS) last November said.
It has been said repeatedly that the US objective is the
construction of trans-Afghan pipelines allowing access to Caspian
oil and gas. According to the authors and an article in Le Monde
Diplomatique in January, US attempts to bribe and threaten the
Taliban had preceded the September 11 attacks. Notably, the IPS
article quoted the French authors as saying that, faced with the
Taliban's refusal to co-operate, the rationale of energy security
changed into a military one, reflecting what the report advocated
as a valid option.
Providing a footnote to the question of US military threats, the
General Accounting Office, the investigative arm of the US
Congress, has sued Mr Cheney to obtain details of his energy task
force meetings. Environmental groups have speculated that the suit
is being fought to hide the level of involvement the collapsed US
energy giant Enron had in the task force.
On the looming oil crisis, the report reluctantly blames
deregulation of the energy markets, a lack of a comprehensive US
energy policy and the avoidance of oil conservation measures.
It also suggests diplomatic alternatives - but policy since the
September 11 attacks appears in keeping only with the military
intervention option. Ideas such as defusing the Arab-Israeli
conflict, an easing of Iraqi sanctions and "reducing the
restrictions on oil investments inside Iraq" are at odds with the
policies the Administration is pursuing.
While the US now presses for "regime change" in Iraq, more than 18
months ago the report repeatedly emphasised its importance as an
oil producer and the need to expand Iraqi production as soon as
possible to meet projected oil shortages - shortages it said could
be avoided only through increased production or conservation in
the near-term.
In essence, the report sees the nature of Persian Gulf politics as
a significant threat and obstacle to increased energy supplies.
Implicit in the substantive concerns - that "Gulf allies are
finding their domestic and foreign policy interests increasingly
at odds with US strategic considerations", and that "evidence
suggests that investment is not being made in a timely enough
manner" to meet global needs - is the seed of what has now become
an almost openly adversarial position.
During the northern summer, news reports began to paint Saudi
Arabia as a possible adversary to the US. Rhetoric regarding Iraq
has also been steadily ratcheted up, creating what amounts to an
allegation du jour scenario. US military circles have watched as
Iraq became "the tactical pivot", Saudi Arabia "the strategic
pivot", and an agenda of "not just a new regime in Iraq" but a
"new Middle East" has been increasingly discussed.
Copyright © 2002. The Sydney Morning Herald.
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